Joe Biden is under mounting pressure to rein in Israel’s high-intensity military campaign within a matter of weeks, as US allies, administration officials and Democratic party members recoil at the mounting death toll in Gaza.
The US president has stopped short of calling for the immediate ceasefire demanded by Arab countries and some US politicians. But his language and that of senior officials in his administration about Israel’s campaign to destroy Hamas has become more critical in recent days, reflecting growing disquiet within the White House.
Unease over Israel’s approach — from its military offensive in Gaza to the escalating tensions in the occupied West Bank — has steadily grown within Biden’s administration, with internal frustrations spilling over in meetings and through official channels for dissent.
Western diplomats said Biden — a steadfast ally of Israel — was now under pressure to push the Benjamin Netanyahu government into easing off the military operation it launched in response to a Hamas attack that killed more than 1,200 Israelis last month.
The White House’s tolerance of the death toll in Gaza — and the public reaction to it — could wear thin as soon as the end of November, the diplomats said, a notion that has been recognised in Tel Aviv, too.
Eli Cohen, Israel’s foreign minister, told reporters on Monday that Israel had “two to three weeks” before it faced significant diplomatic pressure for a ceasefire.
Another Israeli official acknowledged the time pressures, estimating the military had “several weeks” for the “current pattern of operation”. But Israel’s defence forces are planning on the basis of various scenarios, including the possibility of a shorter or longer war.
“We are determined not to stop until the mission is accomplished since this is a war with historical consequences for Israel and its citizens,” the official added.
On Monday, after the Israel Defense Forces surrounded al-Shifa, Gaza’s largest medical facility, Biden was categorical in demanding that “hospitals must be protected”.
In an example of the fine line Biden appears to be seeking to tread as he remains supportive of Israel’s offensive, John Kirby, spokesperson for the US National Security Council, said Hamas was using hospitals, including al-Shifa, and the tunnels underneath them to hold hostages.
But he said Washington did not support striking a hospital from the air and did not want “a firefight in a hospital where innocent people, helpless people, sick people are simply trying to get the medical care they deserve”. Early on Wednesday in Gaza, the IDF said troops had entered al-Shifa.
Biden’s comments came after Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, said “far too many” Palestinians had died in the conflict. Last week the state department’s top Middle East official, Barbara Leaf, told Congress the death toll in Gaza could be “even higher than being cited”.
The pressure on the US is an acknowledgment that, while Israel is leading its own military campaign, Netanyahu’s breathing room to continue the offensive depends on Washington, according to western officials.
“There are two ways that this finishes: either Israel feels it’s achieved its military objectives and stops, or the international community led by the United States . . . pressures Israel to stop or wind up military operations,” a senior European official said.
Officials familiar with the debate inside the Biden administration have reported tense meetings between senior officials and younger staffers, while others have sent several “dissent cables” — internal memos expressing disagreement sent through a channel established during the Vietnam war — that have drawn hundreds of signatories critical of the White House’s support of Israel.
Until now, Biden’s approach to Israel has been a metaphorical bear hug, hoping his close embrace will give him sway in private dealings with Netanyahu.
“It’s entirely up to Israel to make its own military decisions, they’re a sovereign nation that just experienced the worst terror attack in its history,” a US official said.
Movement of Israeli forces in Gaza since November 2
The discussions among diplomats and within Biden’s administration itself about how much longer Israel’s campaign can continue — and what will follow it — come amid mounting international concern at the sheer force of the offensive.
Israel’s assault on Gaza has killed more than 11,000 people, local officials say, while hospitals have gradually ceased operating over the past two weeks as Israeli forces advance deep into the coastal enclave and restrict its supplies of fuel, water and food.
The advance prompted the UN to warn of a “catastrophe” in Gaza. Its secretary-general, António Guterres, has said the territory is becoming a “graveyard for children”. He has demanded an immediate ceasefire.
Before it considers pushing Israel to halt its attacks, the US wants progress in securing the release of more than 200 hostages in Gaza — including Americans and other foreign nationals — officials and analysts said.
“A ceasefire will not happen without a significant release of hostages, that’s the price,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Leaf and Brett McGurk, another senior Middle East official for the administration, are visiting Israel, the West Bank, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan to seek help on the release of hostages and secure more humanitarian assistance for Gaza.
The US is also seeking to significantly extend the duration of humanitarian “pauses” — breaks in the fighting — to get more aid into Gaza. But the longer the war endures, the more Biden will be pressed to apply his own political pressure to Israel.
Saudi Arabia and other Muslim countries, including Iran, have already called for an immediate ceasefire and the unconditional delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza.
The US will need its Arab allies as it seeks to help shape the post-war order in Gaza. US officials are worried Israeli politicians, including ministers, are further alienating Arab capitals by promoting provocative plans for the future of Gaza, including resettling the enclave and urging Palestinians to leave.
Concerns are also gaining currency in Biden’s own Democratic party, from Congressional staffers to officials at the state department, USAID and the White House itself, who have raised concerns about the war’s steep civilian death toll.
Aside from the dissent cables, former Biden election campaign staffers also sent a letter to the president calling for a ceasefire. Democratic senator Mark Warner from Virginia said on Sunday that the divide on Gaza “has a potential” to hurt Biden with Democrats, just as the president begins gearing up for a re-election campaign.
A recent Associated Press-NORC poll showed that nearly half of Democrats disapproved of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, although some White House officials point out that the president’s approach also has support among Jewish Americans.
Officials and analysts said Biden was sticking with his “bear hug” approach — for now.
“I don’t think he’s indifferent to the pressure he’s under, but at this stage, he’s willing to give the Israelis somewhat more time,” said Dennis Ross, at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think-tank. “Although, as you can see, he’s becoming more vocal in terms of what he’s calling for.”
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