Why Nato’s reassurances to Ukraine are starting to ring hollow

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Good morning. A scoop to start: EU countries including France and Belgium are permitting transshipments of billions of cubic metres of Russian gas, a practice banned by the UK and others, in a scheme that helps Moscow fund its war against Ukraine.

Today, I explain the unease around the ongoing meeting of Nato foreign ministers with various key support measures for Kyiv in limbo. And our Athens correspondent witnesses how a more than 200-year long Anglo-Greek argument has got Greece’s opposition and government to work in harmony.

‘As long as it takes’

Western rhetoric of unwavering support for Ukraine is a well-worn mantra. But Kyiv probably didn’t think that it meant waiting “as long as it takes” for western governments to make decisions.

Context: An EU plan to provide Kyiv with €50bn in budget support is stuck over internal wrangling. A $60bn fund promised by the White House is stuck in the mire of US Congress politics. And long-term weapons supplies have been cast into doubt by low production capacities in Europe and uncertainty over next year’s US presidential election.

Amid the foot-dragging, Nato foreign ministers this week are attempting to put on a brave face and turn to their favourite export (of which there is never a shortage): pledges of ironclad backing.

“In our meeting today, allies reiterated . . . unwavering support as the Ukrainians bravely defend their country,” Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said yesterday evening, referring to new pledges of assistance from Germany and the Netherlands. “All of this helps to save Ukrainian lives. And sends a message to Russia that our support will not falter.” 

Ukraine’s summer-to-autumn counteroffensive, which made marginal gains against heavily-entrenched Russian troops, has petered out.

Kyiv privately blames western governments for encouraging them to use Nato military tactics, but failing to provide enough of the cutting-edge weaponry that their own forces enjoy.

That’s led to a sense of uncertainty over what comes next, especially as the US and EU continue to bicker over cash provisions critical to keeping the Ukrainian government running into 2024.

The alliance’s foreign ministers will gather again this morning with their Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba, for a session of the Nato-Ukraine Council.

After meeting with Kuleba yesterday, EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell was asked whether faltering support for Ukraine was the “elephant in the room.”

“Look, the room is full of elephants. We have a room crowded with big issues and big questions. And certainly, the prospect of the war in Ukraine is one of the most important issues [with] which we are dealing,” Borrell retorted. “But, to be frank, I do not see any sign of member [states] having what you call ‘fatigue’.”

Such sentiments are appreciated in Kyiv. But rhetoric can’t pay the bills, or stock the ammunition dumps.

Chart du jour: Downward slope

As inflation has slowed down, markets and central banks have been locked into a stand-off over when interest rates should fall. What happens to inflation over the next few months will be crucial in determining which side is proved right.

Lost marbles

A diplomatic row between the Greek and British governments has become the first issue in a very long time to unite Greece’s opposition and its governing party, writes Eleni Varvitsioti.

Context: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak yesterday snubbed his Greek counterpart Kyriakos Mitsotakis in a spat over the so-called Parthenon marbles, a set of ancient sculptures taken from Athens’ Acropolis in the early 19th century and now exhibited at the British Museum in London.

Sunak at the last minute cancelled a meeting with Mitsotakis scheduled yesterday, complaining that the Greek premier had promised not to use his visit to demand the return of the sculptures.

Athens retorted that it had never made such a promise, as the homecoming of the marbles is a longstanding Greek request. Mitsotakis earlier compared their theft to cutting “the Mona Lisa in half”, and raised the issue with British opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer.

Sunak might have not been aware that his move would cause waves of anger across the Greek political spectrum.

Even the head of leftwing opposition party Syriza, Stefanos Kasselakis, went from bashing Mitsotakis to supporting him publicly.

He wrote on social media platform X that Sunak’s cancelling the meeting “is unacceptable”, and that the issue goes beyond party politics. “Therefore, we demand respect from everyone in our institutions and our rights,” Kasselakis added.

Centre-left Pasok also supported the premier, and parliamentary representative Dimitris Mantzos said in a tweet that the cancellation was “completely contrary to any concept of diplomacy.”

“The reunification of the Parthenon sculptures, a world-class monument, is a universal demand,” he said.

If not universal, it is certainly a general demand in Greece, no matter if you’re on the left or the right.

What to watch today

1. Second day of Nato foreign ministers’ meeting, press conference at 1130.

2. US secretary of state Antony Blinken and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to attend OSCE ministerial meeting in Skopje, North Macedonia.

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