The path to liberal democracy reopens in Poland

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It is striking that the estimated 73 per cent turnout in Poland’s parliamentary election on Sunday was 10 points higher even than in 1989 — when partially free elections kicked off the communist collapse in central Europe. Initial results suggesting the opposition Civic Platform and two other parties could form a majority mark a new turning point. They offer the chance of reversing Poland’s eight-year slide into illiberalism under the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, and of giving the country the voice in Europe that its size and economic dynamism ought to merit. If so, they will vindicate the decision of former premier and European Council president Donald Tusk to return to the domestic fray, and mark a welcome broader boost for liberal democracy.

If exit polls and early results are confirmed and the opposition can find a path to government, the outcome could bring a thaw between Warsaw and Brussels. Despite the dominance of Fidesz in Hungary, and a populist victory in elections in Slovakia last month, it will avoid the creation of a disruptive Eurosceptic bloc in central Europe. It should ease ties with partners such as Germany, with whom PiS had stoked antagonism in hope of electoral gains. And it should cement vital Polish support for Ukraine, to whom PiS recently hinted it might stop donating weapons amid a dispute over grain exports.

Domestically, a Tusk-led government could begin to reverse PiS reforms that have eroded democratic checks and balances and judicial independence. Success might, over time, unlock €35bn in stalled EU funds, boosting the economy and public finances. A more stable, law-based Poland could enhance its already healthy performance in attracting foreign direct investment.

All this remains, however, a best-case scenario. The path is strewn with obstacles. Since PiS is still set to be the largest party, President Andrzej Duda is likely to grant it first dibs on forming a government. The poor showing of its only potential coalition partner — the far-right Confederation — makes that unlikely, though PiS will fight to entice members of other small parties to defect to its camp. It could be January before any opposition government takes office.

As that would be a three-party coalition united in hostility to PiS but little else, it might find it hard to govern. Duda, who is close to PiS and in office until 2025, can veto legislation, and the coalition will lack the 60 per cent of seats needed to overturn such a block. Poland’s constitutional tribunal, which vets laws, and Supreme Court are also stuffed with PiS appointees.

A Civic Platform-led government could at least quickly begin to replace PiS loyalists at the head of public TV — today a tool of government propaganda — and other institutions and state-owned enterprises. In doing so, however, it must avoid the temptation to substitute its own lackeys; disenchantment with perceived cronyism contributed to the defeat of the last Civic Platform government in 2015. Despite the legal and constitutional constraints it will face in unwinding PiS reforms, if it is to restore Poland’s reputation for rule of law it must also reject any methods that would strain the bounds of legality.

Above all, a new opposition government has to recognise that it will inherit a Poland that is deeply polarised between a poorer, socially conservative rural and small-town population, and a more cosmopolitan urban middle class. It needs to find ways to address the concerns of the former — many of whom saw Civic Platform as complacent and high-handed in office — while rejecting the petty nationalism of the PiS years. Success is not guaranteed. Yet if there is a smooth transfer of power from PiS to the opposition, that will in itself be a sign that Polish democracy is more robust than many naysayers had claimed.