The brutal lesson of Kevin McCarthy’s ousting

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Kevin McCarthy was never exactly a child of the “Make America Great Again” revolution. But the former speaker of the House of Representatives made repeated concessions to the most extreme members of the Republican party, and curried favour with them. And, in due course, they destroyed him. McCarthy was only elected speaker after 15 votes in the House of Representatives — and he lasted just 269 days in the job. His was the shortest tenure as House Speaker in more than 140 years.

The inglorious rise and fall of McCarthy teaches an important lesson about doing deals with the Maga extremists and their leader — Donald Trump. It is pointless. Any Republican who is interested in actually making the government work — as opposed to destroying it — should learn from this episode.

To gain power, the former speaker agreed that a single member of the House could trigger a “motion to vacate”, which could lead to his ouster. In doing so, McCarthy handed a gun to the most extreme members of his party and, in due course, they used it. The former speaker’s offence was to agree a funding deal with the Democrats to prevent a shutdown of the government.

Any Republican candidate should now understand that it would be political suicide to agree a similar deal with the Maga ultras, led by Congressman Matt Gaetz. They are unappeasable. The likes of Gaetz need to be faced down and marginalised, not compromised with.

Given the Republicans’ slim majority in the House of Representatives, that means a responsible candidate to succeed McCarthy will need some votes from Democrats to get elected. This also places some responsibility on the Democratic party. They need to consider what compromises they are willing to make to keep the US government functioning.

The stake for the US and the world are very high. The continued operation of the federal government — and Ukraine’s ability to sustain its fight against Russia’s invasion — may depend on getting Congress to agree a budget that lasts more than a few weeks. If that is to happen, the House of Representatives needs a speaker.

The chaos in Congress is part of a broader disintegration of the American political system. Donald Trump remains the favourite for the Republican party nomination, despite facing four separate criminal cases and the possible loss of large parts of his business empire in a civil fraud case. With Trump as one of the two main candidates, the US presidential election will be chaotic. A leaderless Congress that cannot pass a budget would deepen the dark hole into which the US political system is descending.

But what compromises could the Democrats reasonably make in the search for a new speaker? There are currently two frontrunners. Jim Jordan is far too close to the radicals to be an acceptable choice. His main rival, Steve Scalise, has — unlike Jordan — taken a responsible stance on Ukraine. But Scalise, like Jordan, has also backed the lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from Trump. That alone is likely to make it impossible for the Democrats to support him.

If both Scalise and Jordan are rejected, then other less irresponsible Republicans may come forward. The best solution would be for the next Speaker to draw on support from moderates in both parties. If a centrist Republican, willing to face down the Maga extremists, emerges, the Democrats should seize the opportunity. The American political system is flirting with self-destruction. If it tips over the edge, even members of Congress will not be immune from the consequences.