Standing in her doorway in the chocolate box village of Barton-le-Clay in Mid Bedfordshire, Gill Merrick says she will vote for whoever has the best shot at beating the Conservatives. Trouble is, she doesn’t know who that is.
“I’m worried because we have so many anti-Tory candidates, the vote will be split,” she tells Liberal Democrat politicians who knocked at her door.
The Lib Dems and Labour are both adamant they can overturn the 24,664 vote majority the Conservatives enjoyed at the last general election in this rural constituency 50 miles north of the capital given the ruling party’s weak position in national polls.
If Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives lose here in true blue territory, it would be a stark sign of how far the UK electorate has turned against his government. The ruling party also faces likely defeat by Labour in a by-election in Tamworth on the same date.
But the intense rivalry between the main opposition parties could split the vote in Mid Beds on October 19 and give Sunak a much-needed win as he tries to reset his premiership ahead of the general election, which is expected in 2024.
All three parties will descend on British cities over the next three weeks for their annual party conferences, where they will seek to build momentum ahead of a painstaking year of election campaigning.
For the Lib Dems, who are gathering in Bournemouth this weekend for their annual conference, Mid Bedfordshire is an opportunity to show they have a real shot next year of doubling their clutch of MPs to 30 — even though they secured only 13 per cent of the vote in the constituency in 2019.
They are eager to show their strength next month in the rural Conservative heartlands around Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire, and have some form for securing by-election wins from third place — as they did in North Shropshire in 2021.
Sipping on a diet coke at the Royal Oak pub in Barton-le-Clay this week with Lib Dem candidate Emma Holland-Lindsay, the party’s deputy leader Daisy Cooper says a victory in Mid Beds would “certainly put the wind in our sails”.
“It would send a message about our ability to win in classic blue wall areas and in rural areas as well, which is a big part of our electoral strategy,” she adds.
Labour, meanwhile, is equally anxious to show that Sir Keir Starmer’s financially orthodox and socially traditional platform can carry the party to victory deep into Conservative territory. Mid Bedfordshire has been one of the Tories’ safest seats, held since 1931 and most recently occupied by Nadine Dorries.
The by-election sparked by Dorries’ resignation last month has opened up bitter divisions between the main opposition parties. Labour has accused the Lib Dems of fighting a dirty campaign against their candidate, Alistair Strathern, a former climate specialist at the Bank of England, by falsely claiming that he does not live in the constituency.
Sitting on a bench by a primary school in the village of Stondon, Strathern said it had been “surreal” receiving leaflets through his letterbox in the constituency for the past four months telling him he lives somewhere else.
He said the Tory vote had clearly collapsed in the region, showing “there are no areas in this country that haven’t been hit by the Tories’ mismanagement”.
“The polls are showing us that this is going to be an incredibly close race on election day between myself and the Conservative candidate,” he said.
Dorries, a loyal ally of former prime minister Boris Johnson, is viewed by residents as having not engaged on local issues, from transport services to NHS waiting times and limited police presence. Soaring mortgage rates under the Conservatives have also caused anger.
The latest poll of voting intentions in the seat by pollster Survation on behalf of campaign group Labour Together found that less than half of locals who voted Conservative in 2019 were likely to do so this time. It showed Labour neck and neck with the Tories, with 29 per cent of the vote, and the Lib Dems trailing behind with just 22 per cent.
Along the high street of Flitwick, the largest town in the seat, 48-year-old Richard Wilson, who works at Fujifilm, says Labour will get his vote, though he has never voted for the party in the past.
“I would like the Lib Dems to get in but I think change is the most important thing and that’s the best shot we have,” he says, pointing to the party’s position in the polls. “Hopefully it will give Westminster a kick up the backside.”
“It’s a scrap to put it mildly,” said one Conservative MP in a nearby seat. In the Tories’ favour, he argues, is not just fighting between Labour and the Lib Dems, but the strength of their well-known candidate Festus Akinbusoye, who is police and crime commissioner for Bedfordshire — and the fact there is “no great love of [Keir] Starmer”, Labour’s leader.
He believes that Sunak’s decision to U-turn on a few key climate targets this week, such as pushing back a ban on the sale of new diesel and petrol cars, is likely to play well in this seat where more than 90 per cent of constituents own a car.
The Lib Dems also argue that it is impossible for this deep-rooted Conservative region to turn red, and claim Labour has hit its ceiling for support.
Either way, standing on her porch in Barton-le-Clay, Merrick told the Lib Dem campaigners: “I hope both your leaders talk and come to a more sensible arrangement ahead of the election.”
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