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The Pakistani government’s decision last month to deport undocumented Afghans back to their homeland deepens a humanitarian crisis many thought could not get any worse. Tens of thousands have already fled from Pakistan, where they have sought refuge from war, famine and persecution for decades. Entire families are being uprooted, and are crossing back into Taliban-ruled Afghanistan without food, water or shelter. The impending arrival of thousands more means Afghanistan’s fortunes are about to slide even further.
Islamabad’s “Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan” gave undocumented Afghan migrants just a month, until November 1, to leave. More than 200,000 have already left, and multiples more could follow. Pakistan is estimated to have about 4.4mn Afghan migrants and refugees, and over a third are undocumented, according to the authorities. Afghans have been seeking refuge in Pakistan ever since the 1979 Soviet invasion. About 600,000 have left Afghanistan since 2021 alone, when the Islamist Taliban romped back to power.
Pakistan insists it is only targeting undocumented individuals. But it is not that simple. Afghans have been in Pakistan for generations. Many of the deported were born and raised there too, and have no ties back to their original home country. Delays in registration processes mean arrivals have not been able to obtain the appropriate records. There are also reports of registered refugees and others with legal documents being pressured too. Human Rights Watch has noted instances of detentions, beatings and extortion.
The return of hundreds of thousands of Afghans exacerbates what is already one of the world’s worst humanitarian tragedies. Afghanistan’s economy has been dire since the Taliban’s return. Joblessness is rife, and draconian restrictions on women’s lives stifles its prospects further. Three-quarters of its population depends on aid, more than 3mn are displaced and several powerful earthquakes last month killed at least 1,000 people. Camps set up to hold returning Afghans are poorly equipped, and some worry the expulsion could send them directly to their deaths. The Taliban’s promise of an amnesty for returning opponents lacks credibility.
Pakistan faces its own problems. Its economy is in a slump and its politics are in chaos, after former prime minister Imran Khan was imprisoned this year. The caretaker government in Islamabad, which is heavily influenced by the military, considers the order necessary for national security. This year hundreds of Pakistanis have been killed in terrorist attacks, which officials say are linked to Afghan insurgencies and the Taliban. The 2,670km border is difficult to govern. The order, however, overwhelmingly punishes those seeking refuge. It is also undoubtedly an attempt to scapegoat Afghans for the country’s economic crisis ahead of elections next year.
Islamabad should reverse its decree. Expediting documentation procedures for the Afghan diaspora and official settlement programmes are a more sensible approach. The west cannot hide from its responsibilities, and culpability, either. It is not doing enough to help take in Afghans, nor is it providing ample support to countries that are. Indeed, Pakistan has a long record of hosting refugees. The UN-led Regional Refugee Response Plan has only a small fraction of the $600mn it needs to support Afghans in neighbouring host countries. Efforts to help Pakistan tighten its border security are also important.
Islamabad’s policy is not only cruel, it also makes little sense when Pakistan’s security is inextricably tied to stability in Afghanistan. Forcefully sending thousands into the Taliban-ruled fragile state is a humanitarian disaster in the making. That is a tragedy for the displaced and destitute Afghans. It also comes with long-term implications for security across the region. That will be in neither Pakistan’s nor the west’s interests.
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